Is a Recession Finally Here?

Stocks have closed at new all-time highs in four of the last five weeks. But the economic data has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Estimated GDP growth for the second quarter cratered from 3% down to 1.5% in the last two weeks. And the unemployment rate is now ticking higher, suggesting a potential Sahm Rule Trigger which would mean a recession has arrived.

Is this the real deal... or is it just another false positive for recession indicators? We dive into all of that this week, along with our forecast for stocks heading into the second half of the summer.

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